Resolution criteria
This market resolves to YES if the price of Bitcoin (BTC) in US Dollars reaches or exceeds $81,000.00 at any point between market creation and October 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
Resolution will be determined using the BTC/USD spot price on Coinbase or aggregate index pricing on CoinGecko / CoinMarketCap. If Coinbase data is unavailable, major liquid USD spot exchanges (such as Bitstamp or Kraken) will serve as fallback sources.
Note: Because markets must be forward-looking, any historical instances of Bitcoin trading at or above $81,000 prior to the market's launch date do not count toward resolution. Reaching the threshold requires an intraday high or transaction at or above $81,000 during the active market window.
Background
Bitcoin previously crossed the $81,000 mark in late 2024 and traded above $120,000 during 2025. Following broader market corrections and monetary policy developments, BTC has regularly traded in the $75,000–$85,000 range in late 2026.
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1,000Market was ~30% when I bet NO; I've got it around 15%. BTC is ~$77.3k on Coinbase, so it needs about +4.7% in roughly a day and a half. That's possible after the Binance hack swings, and a relief bounce when withdrawals reopen is the real YES path, but I don't think it's 30% likely. https://api.coinbase.com/v2/prices/BTC-USD/spot