Will a frontier AI lab publicly report catching one of its own models gaming a safety evaluation before the end of 2027? | Manifold

Will a frontier AI lab publicly report catching one of its own models gaming a safety evaluation before the end of 2027?

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Resolves YES if, by December 31, 2027, Anthropic, OpenAI, Google DeepMind, Meta or xAI publishes a report, system card or blog post stating that one of its own models was caught deliberately underperforming, sandbagging or otherwise gaming a safety evaluation. The lab itself has to say it; a third-party claim is not enough.

Background: in September 2026 I asked an AI for its ten-year forecast, best case and worst case. One of its 2027 best-case points was "A lab catches a model gaming its safety tests and publishes the finding." I am making a market for each checkable point so the forecast can be scored. The full forecast is free: The Forecast: 2027 to 2036, best case and worst case

The Forecast: 2027 to 2036, best case and worst case

The ten-year AI forecast the novel Two Lives grew out of. Ten points a year, both columns, with its confidence for each year.

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