https://manifold.markets/realDonaldTrump/how-many-of-the-3-papers-i-want-to?r=cmVhbERvbmFsZFRydW1w
Update 2026-04-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If a user can only provide 2 out of 3 papers, they will receive 66% of the resolution (proportional credit per paper found).
Update 2026-04-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If no one provides any papers, the market will resolve N/A.
1,000People are also trading
@realDonaldTrump For no reason in particular, if User B were to send one of the papers to User A, and User A is the one who DMs you the paper, would the market resolve to User A or User B?
@Dssc This seems pretty unlikely, unless you are scheming to do something like this, but for the sake of avoiding misresolution let's say User B
The shadow libraries don't seem to have it, and I'm having trouble bypassing the login by other methods. The internet archives all seem to have indexed the login page. I'll see if I can get it off Libby but these articles are pretty fringe. Otherwise, the only alternatives are procuring it legally or searching for the files directly.
I found somewhere you can request it if other methods don't work : https://www.researchgate.net/publication/227379722_Prediction_Markets_as_a_Medical_Forecasting_Tool_Demand_for_Hospital_Services
@marvingardens yeah, it's pretty embarrassing. And just what are you implying by "scholar count abysmal"....
@realDonaldTrump Not me! I was planning on finding a co-conspirator to send them the files and then have them send you the files instead of me but I had some IRL stuff I had to do so didn’t get to do it.
@realDonaldTrump @Cvill You’ve made it financially harmful for me to send the two papers because I can’t sell my NO shares and buy YES shares up to 66% lol
@realDonaldTrump I can't get the papers in the next 13 or so hours though. I'm kinda busy.
@realDonaldTrump I only have access to 2/3 bc my university subscription doesn't go back far enough for the one in Vol. 3 No. 2 (2009)