Update 2026-04-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The attacking force must be a real (state) army, not a non-state militia.

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Israel, followed by A non-state militia and Iran are most likely. See the market for live updates (17 traders, as of Apr 13, 2026).

Who will attack Lebanon in April 2026 ?

MANIFOLD

Who will attack Lebanon in April 2026 ?

Ṁ1kṀ3.3k

Apr 30

99%

Israel

47%

A non-state militia

19%

Iran

15%

USA

12%

Syria

None of these

European Union

Update 2026-04-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The attacking force must be a real (state) army, not a non-state militia.

Market context

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Hezbollah disarms by EOY 2026?

12% chance

Will Hezbollah of Lebanon be fully disarmed before June, 2026?

11% chance

Will Israel attack Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Kuwait, or Jordan in 2026?

Will Israel return Lebanon/Hezbollah to the stone age before 2028?

10% chance

Sort by:

@Arracheur2Marches can you better define this? Does it count non-state militias already in Lebanon? If so, are we counting "attack Lebanon" as only attacking thr government?