Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
When will Sam Altman cease to be the CEO of OpenAI?
10
Ṁ1kṀ2.8k
Nov 5
0.9%
2025
10%
2026
11%
2027
9%
2028
8%
2029
7%
2030
6%
2031
49%
Other

Simple renaming: A straightforward renaming of the organization will count as OpenAI.

Mild restructure with renaming: If the rebranding is accompanied by only a mild restructuring, it almost certainly counts as OpenAI.

Large restructure: If the organization undergoes a significant restructure that leads to substantial or widespread disagreement about what constitutes "OpenAI," this could cause the market to resolve as NO even if Sam Altman remains CEO.

Temporary Leave doesn't count. Only permanent exit from the CEO position counts.

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!