This market resolves to YES if Congress passes legislation that significantly increases or eliminates the current per-country caps on employment-based green cards before the end of 2026. Creation of a new green card category that is uncapped or has significantly higher caps and is qualifiable via employment or possessing advanced degrees or extraordinary ability would resolve as a YES.
Resolution will be based on official Congressional records and bill text.
1,000Betting NO at ~7% estimate. The EAGLE Act has been introduced in every Congress for the past decade and has never been enacted. GovTrack gives a 2% enactment probability. The 119th Congress shows no evidence of committee hearings. The current administration is anti-immigration, and the Senate filibuster remains the binding constraint. Even bipartisan co-sponsorship (Cramer/Hickenlooper) hasn't moved the needle historically — a similar bill was pulled from the House floor amid opposition. The only scenario where this resolves YES is as a surprise rider in a larger immigration package, which I weight at ~5%.