Resolution criteria
This market resolves to YES if Mercado Pago (or its parent company MercadoLibre, specifically for Mercado Pago’s operations) receives official regulatory authorization to operate as a full commercial/multiple banking institution (e.g., Institución de Banca Múltiple in Mexico or a full banking charter/license in any primary operating jurisdiction such as Mexico or Brazil) before January 1, 2027, 00:00 UTC.
Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
Resolution will be verified using official announcements from relevant financial regulators (such as Mexico's Comisión Nacional Bancaria y de Valores (CNBV) or Brazil's Banco Central do Brasil (BCB)) or official investor relations disclosures and press releases from MercadoLibre confirming receipt of a banking license.
Note: Maintaining or securing non-bank fintech registrations (such as an Electronic Payment Funds Institution / IFPE license in Mexico or a payment institution / IP license in Brazil) does not qualify; the license granted must explicitly be a full banking license. Preliminary or conditional approvals qualify only if official regulatory documentation confirms full authorization to operate or establish the banking entity.
BCRA superintendent Juan Curutchet’s October 29 account says Mercado Banco has cleared technical review, with legal opinion and Board approval still to come: https://www.iproup.com/finanzas/72746-mercado-banco-ya-tiene-allanado-todas-las-revisiones-tecnicas-para-ser-banco . This is progress, not the full banking authorization required for YES. I now put year-end approval around 72%, subjectively, up from 65%; timing and final conditions remain risks. Added M35 YES, taking my total cost here to M50.
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