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MANIFOLD
First US state to secede
10
Ṁ1.2kṀ719
2100
15%
California
5%
New Mexico
8%
Texas
5%
Hawaii
5%
Alaska
12%
Washington
14%
Florida
36%
Other

Resolves to the first U.S. state, that publicly declares and actively pursues secession through a formal action like a referendum, legislative act, or executive proclamation, AND takes practical steps toward independence (e.g., establishing separate governance or controlling state resources), regardless of federal government acknowledgement.

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And that market is without federal acknowledgement (just state declaration): https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/first-us-state-to-declare-independe