Which opening moves are winning for White?
10
1kṀ19842040
31%
d4
18%
e4
14%
c4
13%
b3
11%
a3
11%
h3
11%
c3
11%
d3
11%
e3
11%
f4
11%
g3
11%
Nc3
11%
Nf3
10%
b4
9%
a4
9%
Nh3
8%
h4
7%
Na3
6%
f3
6%
g4
Each option resolves YES if after the respective opening move, White can force a win with optimal play from both sides. Resolves NO if Black can force a win or draw.
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If I'm understanding the resolution criteria correctly, the highest option on this market should be no higher than 100 minus this other market: https://manifold.markets/NcyRocks/can-black-force-a-draw-in-chess?r=Rmlvbg
@JussiVilleHeiskanen "Optimal play" just means "Assume both sides always choose the move that maximizes their game-theoretic outcome." An option will be resolved YES only if it is shown through a future proof or exhaustive engine analysis that White can force mate from that position.