How many of the next 10 spam accounts I report will be banned a week later?
17
250Ṁ1499
resolved Apr 14
Resolved
YES
≥1
Resolved
NO
≥2
Resolved
NO
≥3
Resolved
NO
≥4
Resolved
NO
≥5
Resolved
NO
≥6
Resolved
NO
≥7
Resolved
NO
≥8
Resolved
NO
≥9
Resolved
NO
10

I’m conducting a small experiment to test how effective reporting spam accounts on Manifold is. I will report 10 unbanned spam accounts as I come across them. Once I’ve reported all 10, I’ll wait a week from the time of the 10th report, then check how many of those accounts have been banned.

This market resolves based on the number of those 10 accounts that have been banned by that time.

Throughout the course of the market, I may share updates on how many accounts I’ve reported so far and how many have already been banned. I will not share the names of the accounts I've reported.

Update 04/07/2025, 04:32 PM (PT): I have reported 10 spam accounts, of which 1 has been banned. This market will resolve based on the number of these 10 accounts that have been banned by April 14th, a week from this update.

Update 04/14/2025, 03:19 PM (PT): This market closes in an hour and only one of the 10 accounts is banned. No accounts have been banned since the last update.

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