The point of this market is to forecast the change in the time commitment FOLDED will require over time. Each option resolves PROB to the number of minutes it takes me to complete the listed day of FOLDED, starting from when I log in and ending when I check in that day. If it takes me 100 minutes or longer, the option for the day resolves YES. If it somehow takes me less than 1 minute, the option for the day resolves NO.

Examples:
10 minutes 15 seconds → 10%
30 minutes 59 seconds → 30%
31 minutes 0 seconds → 31%
122 minutes 6 seconds → YES
0 minutes 58 seconds → NO

If I don't check in for a day and am eliminated, that day and all future days resolve N/A.

Only time spent doing the challenge counts; if I take a break while logged in, it doesn't count as time spent doing the challenge. I will add more days to this market if the experiment lasts long enough.