Will I complete my September writing deadline?
9
150Ṁ704
resolved Sep 30
Resolved
YES

I have a "post one work to AO3 by the last day of every month or give 5% of my pre-tax income of the past month to a charity" goal. I haven't posted a work for September yet, and have 3.5 days left.

I care a lot about this goal & have not missed a month since I started it in March (in two cases setting down everything else and working really hard to get a story in before the deadline). However, I am unusually busy right now with wedding planning, so I am less able to put aside other things.

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predictedYES

To my surprise, not only did the right-sized idea hit me the day after I made this market, but the resulting short story is one of my top 3 things I've ever written:

https://scyy.fi/dreamtime

do you have any plans for how you'll bet in this market? some possibilities:

  • to signal insider info

  • to counter market forces and incentivize traders

  • to profit

  • as a commitment device (only YES, mostly at good ratios for opposing traders)

  • not at all

@Stralor thanks for asking the question explicitly. I've thought about it & I'm going to bet YES purely as a commitment device, even though my actual prediction of completion is somewhere between 10% and 70%

@etirabys I'll pitch in as an opposing party, then! good luck!

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