Conditional on moving to [city], what is P(my friend has a primary partner in March 2026)?
10
3.1kṀ1310
2026
59%
New York City
58%
Chicago
57%
Boston
57%
Seattle
55%
Washington DC
50%
Portland
43%
San Francisco

My friend is a 38 year old straight cis male in Seattle. He presently has no primary romantic partner and would like one. Here are some things about him that seem relevant:

  • Has had nine 6mo+ relationships in his life

    • Four of them he would not date now, as his standards have changed since youth

  • Height 5'11, BMI 25 ("borderline between normal and overweight")

  • About as wealthy as you'd expect from a competent programmer who's been employed steadily

  • Competent dancer, currently socializes largely through dance. Would also somewhat hang out in the rationalist scene of whatever city he landed in

  • (My judgment) both unusually socially awkward/offputting and unusually charming

Conditioned on him moving (defined as: spending at least a month in) various cities, what is the likelihood he'll have a primary partner in March 2026?

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