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MANIFOLD
Will I continue being productive for a full month? (prob=streak days/30)
4
Ṁ100Ṁ132
resolved Aug 1
Resolved as
85%
See https://manifold.markets/JoyVoid/will-my-hypomaniaburst-of-productiv which conflated my feeling of euphoria and my working everyday/regularly. While I don't experience hypomania now, I still continue working on my projects very regularly everyday. Interested to know if this is another fad, or if I'm able to really make it stick around this time. To make the criteria clear this time: If I have two consecutive days when I didn't work at all/not enough to my satisfaction, the streak ends and the question resolves to the number of streak days / 30. I may say one day prior that I am taking a break for a certain period of time, and these days will be deducted from the number of streak days, but do not terminate it. My betting policy ( https://manifold.markets/Angela/repost-under-what-conditions-is-it#AbqapM5wyao8Lr87sJVO ): Self-incentive
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predictedYES
4.5 down days in total, the streak seems to have been quite maintained. Seems like I might have found a good way to work and do stuff! It seems that I need better rest management, though, as well as mood management. I still have bipolar down episodes randomly, and I don't know yet how to resolve them properly. Maybe I should open a market on that?
Since it hasn't resolved yet, this must be pretty high, right? Right?
predictedYES
Yesterday was not very productive, today seems to be fine Max resolution: 90.3%
predictedYES
2 down days for now overall (max resolution is 93%), but otherwise it seems to continue fairly well