Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if Admiral Frank "Mitch" Bradley, commander of the United States Special Operations Command since October 3, 2025, resigns from his position before the end of December 31, 2025. Resolution will be confirmed via official Department of Defense announcements or credible news reporting from major outlets (Reuters, AP, Washington Post, etc.). The market resolves NO if Bradley remains in his position through the end of 2025.

Background

Bradley, then commander of the Joint Special Operations Command, oversaw a strike in the Caribbean on September 2, 2025, ordered by Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth against a vessel suspected of narcotics trafficking. The Post reported that Bradley ordered a second strike after two survivors were identified on a drone feed, following Hegseth's directive to leave no survivors. The incident prompted questions from current and former officials and law-of-war experts about whether the operation was a war crime or even complied with U.S. law. Despite this controversy, Hegseth said "Admiral Mitch Bradley is an American hero, a true professional, and has my 100% support."

Considerations

Bradley was recently promoted and assumed his current position as SOCOM commander on October 3, 2025—less than two months before the end of the year. While the September boat strike incident generated significant scrutiny and legal questions, he has retained the backing of Defense Secretary Hegseth and has continued in his elevated command position.