Israel will begin paying Jews from around the world to move into Gaza by May 2024?
22
327
1k
Jun 1
1.2%
chance

Will it happen and will it begin this quickly?

Clarifying statement:
An open offer to occupy Gaza in exchange for any type of monetary gain proposed by anyone in Israel followed by actions to commit those monetary gains towards settlements within Gaza or purely for personal use by those who wish to claim territory within the land
If there is no construction started or physical occupation by a jew not previously stationed within Gaza or clear and confirmed plans to do such by the end of May the result would end in No
Most importantly money will have to be moved for the specific purpose of occupying what is currently considered Gaza by the end of May

and to be even more specific it needs to be easily secured information that will be linked to in the comment section in the result of a yes

Get Ṁ600 play money
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bought Ṁ15 YES

predicts YES

https://youtu.be/hj5X3dEOOi4?t=964
And here's my man Bernie here to educate you on why I'm going to win this

bought Ṁ500 of NO

@emptybedTV Please buy more YES!

predicts YES

https://youtu.be/B2UMvRMdTaI?si=dB21zS0YmJDXiu34

And Blinken is voting NO too so it’s not looking good for my chances of winning this but I wouldn’t doubt the lengths Israel is willing to go to have greater influence over that region so I’m still confident in my YES

predicts YES

I really don’t know why it’s still only at 4% yes when step 1 is already beginning . https://youtu.be/GlAyRFI3uNg?si=Xs7hI_J6oP-uSxDj

bought Ṁ0 of NO

@emptybedTV So then bet it up! Cheap YES shares for you.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@emptybedTV I live in Israel and thinks this has no chance of happening, will come back tomorrow with more Mana to get it under 10% since it's so closer. Thanks for betting YES, making it more interesting market

bought Ṁ0 of NO

@0482 Bet it to 1% !!!!!

bought Ṁ4 of NO

@SirCryptomind the ROI is too low below 10%

predicts YES

@0482 I'm even more confident now than ever so it's not going below 10%

I decided to try asking ChatGPT with the prompt Manifold uses and see what it gives out for image generation:

"A vibrant and bustling cityscape with modern skyscrapers and a lively street scene in Gaza, filled with people of diverse backgrounds and cultures. The streets are lined with shops and cafes, and there's a sense of energy and excitement in the air. In the foreground, a group of Jewish individuals from different parts of the world, wearing traditional attire, are warmly welcomed by local residents. The atmosphere is joyful and inclusive, symbolizing the unity and harmony that will be fostered through this initiative. The image captures the hope and anticipation of Jews worldwide embarking on a new chapter in their lives, as they contribute to the growth and prosperity of Gaza. The bright blue sky overhead represents an optimistic future, with the date 'May 2024' prominently displayed, emphasizing the timeline for this transformative endeavor."

"A vibrant and bustling cityscape of Gaza, with modern buildings and a lively atmosphere. In the foreground, a diverse group of people, representing Jews from various countries, can be seen happily embracing their new surroundings. They are surrounded by welcoming locals, exchanging cultural traditions and enjoying the vibrant street markets. The skyline is adorned with flags of Israel and Gaza, symbolizing the unity and collaboration between the two communities. The sun is shining brightly overhead, symbolizing hope and a promising future. The image captures the excitement and anticipation as Israel prepares to implement their visionary initiative of incentivizing Jews from around the world to move into Gaza by May 2024."

"A vibrant and bustling cityscape in Gaza, with modern skyscrapers and a beautiful beachfront. The streets are filled with people from diverse backgrounds, including Jews from around the world, who are happily engaging with the local community. The scene is bathed in warm sunlight, with colorful flags representing different countries fluttering in the gentle breeze. In the foreground, there is a sign that reads 'Welcome to Gaza: A New Home for All'. This image captures the spirit of unity, opportunity, and hope, symbolizing Israel's initiative to incentivize Jews from around the world to move into Gaza by May 2024."

Strange, I can't seem to reproduce the headline image. They are all "vibrant cityscape of Gaza"

predicts NO

@emptybedTV Sorry to bother you, just one more thing: The image on this market was automatically generated by AI, and while you didn’t choose it, you are able to change it. Can you replace it with something less offensive? Lmk if you want me explain why or how.

I'll send $1 via Paypal to any jew who moves to Gaza before May of 2024. According to the @emptybedTV, that should cause this market to resolve YES right now.

predicts NO

@IsaacKing Are you Israel? (No, I’m dad.)

@oh The comment below just says a jewish person must be paid! Doesn't say by whom.

bought Ṁ100 of NO

What precedent for this are you referring to?

@oh It is possible the precedent is based on what they have done with the West Bank BUT that situation seems not to be or meet "from around the world" in the title. Nor are the articles state anything compelling to the question asked.

Can you clarify this @emptybedTV ?

SOURCE LINK 1

SOURCE LINK 2

This Wiki was also pointed out to me today by Evan.

Israeli Settlement Policy

What will the resolution criteria be for this?

predicts YES

@EvanDaniel if any Jewish person anywhere is paid or is offered tax exemptions to move into any part of what is currently known to be Gaza by May then it will resolve as yes

@emptybedTV Can you update your description to state such and what qualifies as proof, please?

@emptybedTV That seems somewhat different than the "from around the world" requirement in the title; for instance if it only applied to Israeli residents that wouldn't feel to me like it was "from around the world".

This seems like it has plenty of room for controversy and will very likely end up with a fair bit of mod scrutiny; I think getting well-written, clear, and consistent criteria and title is probably important for this market.

@EvanDaniel Or maybe I'm just reading "any" in the wrong way in the comment? It's an annoyingly ambiguous word sometimes. Do you mean "the offer must be open to all Jewish people, regardless of where they currently reside, in order to count" or do you mean "if the offer is made to any one Jewish person, regardless of how restrictive the eligibility requirements are, that counts"?

predicts YES

@EvanDaniel You’re focusing on the wrong aspects of the claim. The clear resolution to this question is if the land begins to be housed and populated by Jews regardless of where they are from. Around the world includes Israel but I see how it can be confusing. Let’s just say if it happens it happens. It’s honestly unlikely but who’s to say.

predicts NO

@emptybedTV Which of the following are required qualifications for this to resolve YES?

  1. More than one Jew moves to Gaza (vs. just one Jew)

  2. The money was explicitly given only if they moved to Gaza (vs. would’ve gotten the money anyways)

  3. The money was given by the Israeli government (vs. a non-profit organization, private company, or individual citizen)

  4. The money was given in the form of cash or tax exemptions (vs. subsidized property or other indirect benefits)

predicts YES

@oh I love this
An open offer to occupy Gaza in exchange for any type of monetary gain proposed by anyone in Israel followed by actions to commit those monetary gains towards settlements within Gaza or purely for personal use by those who wish to claim territory within the land
If there is no construction started or physical occupation by a jew not previously stationed within Gaza or clear and confirmed plans to do such by the end of May the result would end in No
Most importantly money will have to be moved for the specific purpose of occupying what is currently considered Gaza by the end of May

@emptybedTV Can you update the clarifications you are making in comments within the description of the market, please?

Thank you.

@emptybedTV Thank you! I think this one is going to be a bit of a mess almost no matter what. I greatly appreciate the prompt response with clarifications and updating things accordingly; I think that will help a lot.

predicts NO

@emptybedTV Thanks for adding the description! 🙏

@emptybedTV

if any Jewish person anywhere is paid or is offered tax exemptions to move into any part of what is currently known to be Gaza by May then it will resolve as yes

So like if they make peace and Israel opens a consulate in Gaza City, this resolves YES.

predicts YES

@BrunoParga I see how a consulate or an embassy could be looked at as them moving in to Gaza but I’m more so referring to a residential land acquisition, but Israel acquiring commercial land may also result in a yes. Another example would be if a synagogue begins to be constructed in Gaza that may allow for a resolve of yes, but that would strange.