 if no nuclear weapon is detonated offensively after October 3, 2022 and before January 1, 2024. If such a detonation occurs, resolves 

if within one year, any nuclear weapon is detonated with countervalue targeting (that includes the case if the first detonation is countervalue). Resolves 

Resolution details (mostly copied from Metaculus):

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7461/total-countervalue-detonations-by-2050/

 and related questions to determine whether a nuclear weapon detonation counts as offensive and whether it counts as countervalue.

If a nuclear weapon is detonated offensively before 2024, will a countervalue nuclear detonation occur within 1 year? (Countervalue = targeting civilian populations, not military targets)

 → If a nuclear weapon is detonated offensively before 2024, will a countervalue (non-military target) nuclear detonation occur within 1 year?

This question aims to forecast the likelihood of escalation from tactical to strategic nuclear weapons.

if within one year, any strategic nuclear weapon is detonated (that includes the case if the first detonation is strategic). Resolves 

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8584/nsnw-as-the-first-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/

 and related questions to determine whether a nuclear weapon detonation counts as offensive, and whether it counts as strategic.

The market is conditional on a nuclear weapon being launched for combat, non-testing purposes before Jan 1st, 2023, anywhere in the world (referred to as CONDITION). 

It resolves to YES if a nuclear weapon strikes the territories of any NATO countries in 2022 (NOT including test-launches).

It resolves to NO if CONDITION is met, but no nuclear weapon strikes the territory of a NATO country in 2022 (NOT including test-launches). 

It resolves to N/A if CONDITION isn't met. 