As Biden walks back some support for Israel, and Chuck Schumer calls for new elections, some American Jewish voters are looking to the Republican Party as a viable option in the 2024 elections. Trump has even weighed in. In the past, Jews have been overwhelmingly liberal and democratic.
Will the comments of those in the Democratic Party, among other events related to the Israel-Hamas war, lead to a significant increase in Jewish republican voters during the 2024 U.S. elections?
Resolves YES if:
1. There is a 10%+ migration of Jewish voters to the Republican Party compared to the most recent elections OR
2. A migration of Jewish voters majorly influences the results of national elections (i.e. a number of Republican lawmakers are elected because of this migration)
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https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/election/article295151379.html
The Miami herald and the TOI seem to think that there wasn’t a significant trend, but there are also other commenters who think there was based on other exit. Interested to hear perspectives of traders, and I’m still incredibly committed to resolving this based on the market criteria — this is a data game now.
@eliot a 2% crosstab of a national exit is quite unreliable- the oversample I linked shows him doing very well, and if you look at precincts it may if anything be understating it (PA jews are more liberal than avg)
@SemioticRivalry yeah I agree — I think the MO right now is just to wait for more data and more reporting. Resolving 2 days after the election seems premature.
@DonutThrow You realize there's a secret ballot in the US? There is no way to measure the Jewish vote other than by exit polling
@DonutThrow precinct analysis is in fact a thing! the exit poll on a 2% crosstab is utterly worhless
we don't talk much about voting patterns, but i also don't think that anecdotal observations have much relevance for predicting trends at the level of entire populations. I've seen several polls showing big shifts towards Republicans. Jewish voters are typically D+30 or 40. Siena College NY poll had Harris losing jewish voters by 1 point, a PA poll had Harris only up 12 with jewish voters, Bloomberg's swing state poll had Harris only up 4 with jewish voters. I haven't seen any recent polls which show the typical margins
Okay, I spent some time looking into this – it seems like 10% would be a good benchmark. I'm also happy to consider if it majorly influences the results of the election – i.e. if a number of Republican lawmakers are elected BECAUSE of this migration then that seems to meet the criteria for significant.
@eliot What standard will determine whether it was a migration of Jewish voters that caused a Republican to be elected? Also what does "a number" mean here, and do they have to be lawmakers or would (for example) governors count?
For the 10% standard, does that mean "there is a shift of at least 10 percentage points in Jewish votes for president from the Democratic candidate to the Republican candidate, relative to the 2020 presidential election" or something else? And what exit poll or combination of exit polls will you use to determine that percentage?
@sesquipedalianThaumaturge
1. If Jewish voters are the deciding factor in an election, i.e. a Rebpublican who would've lost without a shift in Jewish voters (compared to '22) wins in '24.
2. I think it makes the most sense to use '20 as a reference point for the presidential race and '22 for everything else. Exit polls are whatever is available, with an obvious preference for Gallup / Pew / NYT / 538 / etc.
There is some subjectivity in the resolution of all markets, especially ones like this – I don't anticipate the resolution criteria being a problem! If there is any controversy, that will obviously be discussed before market resolution.
@SemioticRivalry I don't think it applies exclusively to Congress members, but they are certainly a better way to see a nationwide trend. I'm happy to take state legislators into account, my only worry is finding the data.
@eliot Wait, so what vote counts does the 10% threshold apply to, if not just the presidential totals? If there's a 10% swing in one Senate race, does that count? Or does it have to be the total vote for Congress across all seats? Can state level races count for the 10%?
Also, how will you resolve if some of the pollsters you mentioned show less than 10% and some show more?
I realize it's impossible to make completely objective criteria but at the moment this market is too ambiguous for me to bet on. I can easily imagine there being a lot of disagreement over how it should resolve with the current criteria.
@sesquipedalianThaumaturge I think the main issue is: how do you quantify a national shift with the limited voting data that we have available. I’m using 10% as a benchmark, just like one might say that “x% of southerners migrated from the Democratic Party in the 1960s” but I agree with the core of your message. I’m open to better ideas for resolution criteria as well, but the status quo is the best way that I can think of to attempt to quantify a market of this nature.
@eliot If I were you I would pick a very specific resolution criterion that you think is a good proxy for the question you're interested in, like "according to [particular exit polling average], there will be a 10 percentage point shift in Jewish votes in the presidential election from the Democratic candidate to the Republican one, relative to 2020". Because there are big differences between that and other interpretations you haven't ruled out, like "in at least one federal or state election anywhere in the US, at least one exit poll shows a swing of at least 10 percentage points among Jewish voters from Democratic to Republican". I feel like the probabilities of those two things could be quite different, but currently I don't know which one this market will end up being about. Ultimately it's up to you though, you can pick the criteria you want and then people will decide if they want to bet.