Will I be accepted into Stanford, Princeton, MIT, Harvard, or Yale?
resolved Dec 16

I'm a current high-school senior applying to colleges, hoping to start in Fall of 2024. I'm applying to the five above colleges, among others. I'm applying REA (Restrictive Early Action) at Stanford with Legacy, which means I'm regular decision at the four other schools.

Here's my profile:

Upper-middle class LGBTQ white kid from Berkeley, CA
4.0 Unweighted GPA (my school does not weight)
IB Diploma Candidate (the highest available at our school as of 10/23)

5/5 in AP Chemistry
5/7 in IB Computer Science (SL)
7/7 in IB Biology (SL)

1520 (Perfect) PSAT, NMSQT Semifinalist (future progress to be determined)
1570 SAT (790 Reading/Writing, 780 Math)

Developer (see https://eliot.sh/) including freelance work
Newspaper Web Editor and Journalist (Interviewed by NPR in '22)
Nationally-Ranked Parliamentary Debater (Championship Quarter finalist in 2022, currently ranked #2, Varsity Captain)
Cyclist (Biked 5,000 miles in 2022, Varsity MTBer)
Flutist (Section Leader)
Founded our Art History Club

Debate Tournament Results
- Quarterfinalist, NPDL-TOC 2023
- Tournament Champion, Yale 2023
- Tournament Champion, Vassar 2022
- Tournament Champion, La Reina 2022
- Semifinalist, UOP 2022
- Semifinalist, Ridge 2022

I also have some smaller results not listed here. I will continue to update this list if I win more tournaments. Note that any new entries (I will mark) will not be added to the Stanford application because that is submitted early.

Senior Year Courses
Functionally the most rigorous course load my school offers (apart from language):
- Intermediate Chamber Orchestra
- AP Physics C
- IB Theory of Knowledge
- IB English Literature
- IB History of the Americas
- IB French IV
- IB Math HL
- Journalism

I would say I'm a reasonably good writer, and have spent ~25 hours on the essays as of 10/28/2023. I have a college counselor who has helped along the way.

My two letters are from:
- My junior year Advanced Math III teacher, who I get along well with
- My junior year history teacher / journalism adviser. I'm good friends with them, and I've had them for 4 years

My Stanford interview was on Monday, November 13th, in person. It went really well, I think. I got along really well with my interviewer, and found some common ground.

Results from Colleges
University of Orgeon - Admitted ($50,000 scholarship)

Stanford - Accepted REA

Resolves to YES if I am admitted to any of the five schools.

I will continue to update this description as I receive responses from colleges, or if anything else here changes with my profile, like NMSQT status.

For any colleges who may see this: Hello! I think prediction markets are a fascinating for their applications in the real world. What better thing to use them for than something that's important to my own life?


10/25: Clarified IB Diploma Information

10/28: Submitted Stanford
11/9: Added interview info

12/4: Accepted into the University of Oregon with a $50,000 scholarship

12/15: Accepted into Stanford

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
Sort by:
predicted NO

predicted NO

@eliot Congratulations!

predicted NO

@eliot 2028? Im curious since I dont really know how it works there.

predicted NO

@GmailAccountde24 Admittance for fall 24 would mean a graduation in Spring 2028.

year 1: Fall '24, Spring '25

year2: Fall '25, Spring '26

year3: Fall '26, Spring '27

year4: Fall '27, Spring '28

predicted NO

@MagWildwood Oh yeah sorry I totally forgot that it takes 4 years there

predicted NO

@eliot Congratulations! Very happy to have lost money on this market. Enjoy sports school 🥳

Stanford releases early decisions at 4:00PM PST on Friday. I will resolve the market if needed.

predicted NO

Oh right.

What major are you planning to apply to? Journalism?

@bohaska At the moment I’m undeclared, with an interest in CS, Philosophy, and Art History.

bought Ṁ79 of NO


predicted NO

@bohaska I bet M79 on NO because you getting into Stanford is more valuable than that.

Interviewing with Stanford on Monday. I feel like I interview very well, so I'm looking forward to it!

Submitted Stanford


Yeah I’m gonna go with “no” here bro. Good luck tho! Prove me wrong…

@Broseph Just to clarify, I can’t receive the diploma by the end of the year as that’s the way my school is setup. Maybe “expected” would be more accurate!

applications in the real world