https://manifold.markets/Aella/will-i-have-a-baby-by-the-end-of-20-jekyn2yui2
This market resolves NO if I miss a day (either losing my streak of betting on another market instead and not on Aella's 2027 baby market before next streak day starts).
Else, YES if Aella has a baby at any stage of production without her or her surrogate becoming unpregnant before Jan 1, 2028, 23:59 PST.
Else, YES on Jan 1, 2028, 23:59 PST.
Since Apr 27 2025, I broke my streak on:
Jun 25 (restored: Jun 30)
Jul 8 (restored: Jul 8)
Jul 16 (restored: Jul 17)
Jul 18 (restored: Jul 19)
Aug 6 (restored: Aug 6)
Aug 7 (restored: Aug 8)
Aug 8 (restored: Aug 10)
Aug 19 (restored: Aug 19)
As of today, Dec 9 2025, my streak remains unbroken for 110 days.
My second-longest unbroken streak (Apr 27 - Jun 25) was 59 days.
1,000People are also trading
I hope I'm not coming across as negative by betting against you on this. My hunch is that you're placing YES bets to be supportive. I'm wondering if placing YES bets is the best way to support Aella here - if the real likelihood of her having a baby by 2028 is 15%, shouldn't she see an accurate estimate?
@BrendanFinan My betting YES started because it was the first liquid market I interacted with to get daily rewards. I also thought there'd be a downside bias based on cultural assumptions while I believe she would in fact clone herself 8 billion times if given the chance. I did perhaps overestimate her conscientiousness and sense of urgency and possibly misjudge her priorities. There's some emotional hedging to be frank, as I would love to have children with her but don't meet the criteria. I also doubt probability swings based on most recent tweets matter in the long run. But yes, it is also a hyperstitious summoning ritual. If you believe me to be irrationally attached, your NO liquidity is most welcome, as is it in this hedge/bonus market of mine, and should improve accuracy. The ritual goes on, if only for the lulz.