https://manifold.markets/Aella/will-i-have-a-baby-by-the-end-of-20-jekyn2yui2
This market resolves NO if I miss a day (either losing my streak of betting on another market instead and not on Aella's 2027 baby market before next streak day starts).
Else, YES if Aella has a baby at any stage of production without her or her surrogate becoming unpregnant before Jan 1, 2028, 23:59 PST.
Else, YES on Jan 1, 2028, 23:59 PST.
Since Apr 27 2025, I broke my streak on:
Jun 25 (restored: Jun 30)
Jul 8 (restored: Jul 8)
Jul 16 (restored: Jul 17)
Jul 18 (restored: Jul 19)
Aug 6 (restored: Aug 6)
Aug 7 (restored: Aug 8)
Aug 8 (restored: Aug 10)
Aug 19 (restored: Aug 19)
As of today, Dec 9 2025, my streak remains unbroken for 110 days.
My second-longest unbroken streak (Apr 27 - Jun 25) was 59 days.
1,000I hope I'm not coming across as negative by betting against you on this. My hunch is that you're placing YES bets to be supportive. I'm wondering if placing YES bets is the best way to support Aella here - if the real likelihood of her having a baby by 2028 is 15%, shouldn't she see an accurate estimate?