Resolves YES if the 7-day moving average of Mpox cases reported by the CDC (https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/response/2022/mpx-trends.html) is 0 on any day before January 1, 2023.
The market closes on December 31, 2022, but data for the last days of the year will not be available until January 5, so I will resolve the market then or whenever data for December 31 is available.
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@kazoo yeah, there seems to be a bug with embedding markets, here is the link: https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-the-mpox-monkeypox-outbreak-in-6c6efe560936
@egroj see also this one for the same for mid January: https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-the-mpox-monkeypox-outbreak-in-f1028b4a4a56
Latest update was 12/21, 2pm, when there were 0 cases and the 7-day rolling average was 5. The next update won’t be until 1/5.
‘Due to the federal holiday, CDC’s mpox data for this page will not be updated the week of December 26, 2022. Updates will resume on January 5, 2023, on their regular schedule.’
@NicoDelon thank you! I'll edit the description so that people don't expect a resolution until Jan 5
@egroj FWIW, Our World In Data has cases through the missing dates so far and a few days with zero cases 7-day average. Though that may have been a reporting fluke. We’ll see what the CDC says!