I am basing this off of GMT-8 time zone for February 29th. If they release chapter 1109 between 00:00:00 and 23:59:59, this question will resolve as “YES.” Anything else will resolve as “NO.”
TCB Scans usually posts the chapter on the same day. 1108 was February 22, 1107 was February 15.
I do not answer my own questions.
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@tsaitama Just checked; feb 29th ended about 3 hours ago, last bet was over 3 hours ago. I ended it correctly.
@dwax what i meant was, once people see that the end of the day is nearing, then they will be more inclined to sell their stare of "Yes" and buy a share of "No" because time is running out for TCB to post. It's less of a bet/prediction and just making a last minute switch, no? Once I saw that it was 1 hour before the end, I easily could have swapped decisions. Or is that not how it works??
*am new so if i am wrong feel free to correct me
@tsaitama I mean, that’s basically how prediction markets work. It would suck if it were with real money, but since it’s Mana, it’s not as big of a deal. Say you decided to buy a “NO” bet as it started to drop in probability, somewhere around 5%. The only way you really make profit off that “NO” bet is if you put down a larger amount of Mana than usual, it’s hard to make anything substantial when a market’s close to ending.
Plus, say you had a “YES” bet until the percentage started to drop and you decided to sell to then purchase “NO” bets; you’re just losing Mana, since you have negative profit on the “YES” bets. You’re basically correct about it all, it’s a bit confusing when you think of it compared to like, normal investing or “betting,” but since it’s a fun platform, it’s not as serious.
Hope that makes sense. Enjoy Manifold!
@Gergar The website is still up and there are still about 14 hours left for February 29th GMT-8. You’re free to vote how you want, but their Twitter account being deleted really doesn’t mean much.
@Gergar You write this like I invested 1000 Mana into my own question haha, I have zero skin in the game here. If they don’t upload today then they don’t upload, and you’ll profit 🤷♂️
@Gergar You never know until the clock’s out, the superbowl was decided with 3 seconds of overtime left, y’know? I was jumping to defend it because I wanted to read 1109 last night haha, promise I mean no disrespect 🫶