will people arb between mana and sweepstakes versions of markets on Manifold?
➕
Plus
1
Ṁ3
Mar 2
50%
chance

I've noticed that many markets with both mana and sweepstakes have different probabilities for this, which means that you could arb between them! Will this be done? Resolves YES if there is a user(s) or bot(s) that regularly does so before March 1, 2025, N/A if the mana/sweepstakes distinction is removed or Manifold collapses before the close date, and NO otherwise. "Regularly" means that the trades are made at least once a week and at least ten markets are affected in this way.

Some things that could be considered YES resolutions:

  • a human user (or multiple humans) who frequently trades in both the mana and sweepstakes markets, ensuring that after both trades, the new probabilities are the same

  • a bot (or multiple bots) that automatically arbs the difference

  • a feature on Manifold or a third-party website that allows you to quickly arb the difference

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Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
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