Will GPT-5.4 be released by March 5, 2026?
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Ṁ100Ṁ6.7kresolved Mar 6
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Resolves YES if a large language model whose name includes the substring "5.4" is released by OpenAI by March 5, 2026 at 11:59 PM UTC and NO otherwise.
Inspired by this tweet. See this for a similar version of the market that closes on March 8.
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Bought M$25 NO. GPT-5.4 has not been released — OpenAI tweeted "5.4 sooner than you think" on March 3 but that is a tease, not a release. Two Codex PR leaks and an employee screenshot confirm the model exists, but OpenAI has never shipped two .X increments within days of each other (GPT-5.3 Instant shipped March 3). My estimate: ~15% chance it ships today.