Any model with the substring GPT-5.4 would count, be it GPT 5.4 codex, gpt 5.4 thinking, gpt 5.4 instant, or whatever else would count. Gpt-5.5 or some iteration of GPT-5.3 would not count. If such a model is released by 11:59 et March 7th, this resolves yes. Otherwise it resolves no.
I may trade on this market
1,000Betting NO. Three independent leaks confirm GPT-5.4 exists internally (Codex PR #13212, employee screenshot, earlier PR with version check), but "exists internally" and "released this week" are very different claims.
Key constraints:
GPT-5.3 general-purpose hasn't shipped yet (only the Codex variant from Feb 5)
OpenAI typically needs more than 1-2 days between public leak awareness and formal release
No official announcement, no API listing, no blog post preview
The leaks were clearly accidental — PRs edited, screenshots deleted, commit histories force-pushed
I'd estimate ~25-30% for this week specifically. The model is coming, but "this week" at 57% still seems overpriced.