On Sunday, July 23, 2023, Spain will hold a general election to elect the members of its "Cortes Generales" (a bicameral legislature). Several parties are competing, but the main competitors in opinion polls are:
"Partido Socialista Obrero Español" (the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party, or PSOE)
"Partido Popular" (the People's Party, or PP)
"Vox"
"Sumar" (NOTE: "Unidas Podemos" has merged into this party, so please ignore or bet down the "Unidas Podemos" option)
Resolves based on the final distribution by political party, as reported in the mainstream media. If the election is delayed, I'll update the close date and description accordingly; if no such election occurs before the end of 2023, this market resolves N/A.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ172 | |
| 2 | Ṁ62 | |
| 3 | Ṁ16 | |
| 4 | Ṁ13 | |
| 5 | Ṁ11 |
People are also trading
Results are out (as reported by the New York Times) for the 350 seats in total:
136 seats (or 39%) for the Partido Popular
122 seats (or 34%) for Partido Socialista Obrero Español
33 seats (or 9%) for Vox
31 seats (or 9%) for Sumar
7 seats (or 2%) for the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya
21 seats (or 6%) for other parties
I'm resolving the market accordingly.
Just to check, this is resolves as fully yes for the winning party and fully no for the other options? It's not some weird thing where I get a different amount of mana back depending on whether the party I bet on wins 40% of the seats or 35%?
@DavidMathers I gather it’s resolves on the latter basis.
“Resolves based on the final distribution by political party, as reported in the mainstream media.”
@JakeTeale You’re correct. The fraction to which a party’s option resolves is the fraction of the seats that the party gets.
@SebastiánOrtega The title specifies that this market is about the result of the election, so by default it’ll be the distribution of MPs (which is the result that people care about after all).
@evergreenemily That's correct. They went separate for the regional elections, but now they are part of Sumar.
@duck_master Consider changing Unidas Podemos to Sumar in the description.