High Class or Low Class? - Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "High Class" in 2024? (add answers)
76
5.2kṀ25k
resolved Jan 3
Resolved
YES
Whey protein
Resolved
YES
Wearing a smartwatch
Resolved
YES
Amazon Web Services
Resolved
YES
Barack Obama
Resolved
YES
Anthony Hopkins
Resolved
YES
Chess
Resolved
YES
Apple Products
Resolved
YES
Smoking a cigar
Resolved
YES
Fly fishing
Resolved
YES
Psychedelics
Resolved
YES
Golf
Resolved
YES
Tennis
Resolved
YES
Tea
Resolved
YES
Coffee
Resolved
YES
Mustaches
Resolved
YES
Hipsters
Resolved
YES
Pea Protein
Resolved
YES
LGBTQIA2S+
Resolved
YES
Kamala Harris
Resolved
YES
Frank Underwood

Each answer contains a question: Do you think the person/character/concept is more High Class (YES) or more Low Class (NO)? Bet YES, or NO, according to your opinion. 1 person = 1 vote (per answer), so having more shares does not make your vote count for more.

Heavily inspired from @Joshua's excellent market,

Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?

You can submit any person/character/concept (shortened to p/c/c for the rest of the description), as well as a link / short phrase to give traders some context.

I may N/A options for quality control, or edit them to provide a more neutral summary.


As a trader, you should buy any amount of YES in p/c/c you think are High Class, buy any amount of NO in p/c/c you think are Low Class. I will leave the definition of those terms up to you. The amount of shares doesn't matter for the resolution, one share of yes is one vote and one hundred shares of yes is also one vote.

If I think you are voting purely as a troll, such as buying no in every option, I may block you or disregard your votes. Please vote in good faith! But hey, I can't read your mind. Ultimately this market is on the honor system.

Note that market prices will be a bit strange here, because this is simultaneously a market and a poll. If you sell your shares, you are also removing your vote.

The market will close on Dec 31 2024. I will then check the positions tab on options that have been submitted.

If there is a clear majority of YES holders, the option resolves YES.

If there is a clear majority of NO holders, the option resolves NO.

It does not matter what % the market is at, and bots holding a position are also counted.

Some guidelines:

  • I encourage you not to bet options to extremes (1% or 99%) before a quite clear majority has been established. Otherwise, it prevents others from betting toward that extreme, and can bias the results.

I may update these exact criteria to better match the spirit of the question if anyone has any good suggestions, so please leave a comment if you do.

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