Will I attend Manifest 2023?
14
270Ṁ22k
resolved Sep 23
Resolved
YES

I've been invited to attend Manifest to speak about "prediction markets as commitment devices" (or another topic of my choosing). Now I need to figure out if I can make it!

Resolution Criteria and Fine Print

Almost no chance of ambiguity here. I'd be flying from Portland so either I will or I won't! But just in case: setting foot in the venue at any point during the official dates counts as a YES.

I'll trade in this market, since the point is to have the best possible probability. But I promise to say everything I'm thinking in the comments and wait a minute before placing trades. You're encouraged to front-run me!

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predictedYES

Arriving at Lighthaven (conference venue) in about 10 minutes!

predictedYES

And flight purchased!

predictedYES

Coordination in progress with the organizers. It's official that I'm going!

I filled out the thing and got my ticket as an invitee 🎉 😊

Next: flights...

Next update: my arm is officially being twisted. Another possible title: "The Theory And Practice Of Predicting One's Own Behavior".

I've found it really interesting to see people's personal goal markets, lots to talk about there.

@dreev I took the plunge and bought a ticket on a 50/50 chance you'll give this talk!

@DannyOBrien If you're being even half serious then I'd say we can send the probability into the 90s now. 🤩

@dreev done!

First thought: I'm thinking this should be well above 50%. I don't have a specific conflict on the calendar and I'm overdue to visit the Bay Area.

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