I've been invited to attend Manifest to speak about "prediction markets as commitment devices" (or another topic of my choosing). Now I need to figure out if I can make it!
Resolution Criteria and Fine Print
Almost no chance of ambiguity here. I'd be flying from Portland so either I will or I won't! But just in case: setting foot in the venue at any point during the official dates counts as a YES.
I'll trade in this market, since the point is to have the best possible probability. But I promise to say everything I'm thinking in the comments and wait a minute before placing trades. You're encouraged to front-run me!
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@dreev I took the plunge and bought a ticket on a 50/50 chance you'll give this talk!
@DannyOBrien If you're being even half serious then I'd say we can send the probability into the 90s now. 🤩