The following from Nate Silver's new book is a nice way to lay out the uncertainty we're facing right now about how AI will play out:

But I don't think I agree with that probability distribution. I'd like to make my own version and let anyone make their own version. So I plan to ask Codebuff to make a front-end-only app that shows that chart but with all 101 hexagons below the chart (also with "blockchain" stricken from level 7, wtf). The user can then drag the hexagons into the cells of the chart however they like.

(Optional nice-to-have feature: Get a share link that encodes your chosen probability distribution in the query string so you can link to it.)

If anyone (including me) makes this with Codebuff, this resolves YES. I promise to try if no one beats me to it. If you succeed, you should absolutely bid the market price to 100% before revealing. If not (note the short market duration!) it resolves NO.

PS: I'm bidding the price down to increase the incentive for someone to prove me wrong and create the app.

• Update 2025-02-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification:

  • The resolution will now be determined using a probability-based outcome (resolve-to-PROB) instead of a binary YES/NO.

  • The probability will reflect how true it is that Codebuff created the interactive app.

  • A result of 100% indicates that the app was created entirely by Codebuff, while any lower percentage indicates partial or no creation by Codebuff.