🏅 Top traders

Important-seeming bug report: How did @SmuffelWuffels (aka Cantor) manage to get a negative profit when he exclusively bought NO shares for options that in fact resolved NO?

the display is wrong, he actually got money

@jacksonpolack Ah, phew. Is it some kind of caching issue that will fix itself?

it may or may not fix itself in 'top traders', but everything else will update eventually. "top traders" is broken generally, manifold's kind of a mess in parts

Aaaand we picked him up. It was all totally fine -- no crashes. He was by far the best skater among the other kids there. Sounds like he was cautious but skated fast enough to not feel too silly being the only one wearing a helmet.

So, yeah, optimal parenting (ex post). 🎉

Update: We got the market probability of additional damage down to 2% and dropped him off for ice skating! We'll see what shape he's in when we pick him up...

PS: To counterbalance our irresponsible parenting, we did insist he wear a helmet. ⚖

it doesn't mean much that a manifold market was at a probability for an hour, people just don't check that much

@jacksonpolack Agreed, but it's how we operationalized the decision! See my market about prognootling for the rationale.

Speaking as a recent ice skater I think it’d be super unwise to go but it’s not my arm.

I've got a bet on Pain - I'm reasonably good but I'd put it at better than even odds of falling if I couldn't move one arm, but way better than even odds that I could at least deflect the landing to "not on my arm".

related, but I'd argue to count "pain" as "fell or ran into something and says 'ow', 'oof', 'yikes', etc" :P

@rperce I think normal pain unrelated to the broken arm shouldn't count though. At least that's the spirit of it I had in mind: that it be mutually exclusive with "same thing as when he skates with arms of uncompromised integrity". Of course "pain" and "additional damage" are not meant to be mutually exclusive.

@dreev oh yea, I definitely assumed it was "plausibly as a result of the arm thing"

Clarification: what if he breaks his good wrist while protecting the broken one? I guess we'll count that as additional damage 😬

I wouldn't if it was me, risk/reward seems bad, plus don't you need your arms to balance. idk how that translates to anyone else's decision

I was expecting a bizzare math problem about subsets of R^2

@jacksonpolack Ha, the kid's name is, not exactly coincidentally, Cantor.

We're thinking we'll let him go if (perhaps due to his own trading in this market) the market probability of "additional damage making the choice highly regrettable" is below 1 or 2% when it's time to head to the rink. This is optimal parenting, right?

@dreev The YES limit orders are stacking up. Poor kid (or lucky kid, if he's right and we're wrong!).

@WilliamEhlhardt Oh man, maybe I'll help him break through the limit orders. But then I'm not entirely sure if it will count as an instance of prognootling per https://manifold.markets/dreev/how-many-instances-of-prognootling (probably it still counts? it's like a degenerate case where there turns out not to be disagreement amongst the stakeholders?)

I believe in him

@DanielRohrer Ha, thanks! Though you're eating into his alpha by trading already. He's in school at the moment so can't do so himself yet. :)