This is a conditional market derived from the following markets:
https://manifold.markets/dreev/superhuman-mathematical-problem-sol
https://manifold.markets/dreev/will-ai-be-lifechanging-for-muggles
Specifically, we're asking for the probability of AI being life-changing for muggles by the end of 2029, conditional on superhuman mathematical problem solving (but no AGI) being achieved by that time.
So if market 1 resolves NO or N/A then this market resolves N/A. If market 1 resolves YES then this market resolves the same as market 2.
(This market is inspired by conflicting intuitions between myself and Svata Pleva. I think it would require a bit of coincidence for superhuman math to happen so quickly and so close to the 2030 deadline that there'd be no time for muggles to be impacted. Svata sees it as somewhat rare and/or slow for math breakthroughs to trickle down to practical applications.)
1,000Currently both this market and the "lifechanging for muggles" one are at 70%. I don't think that can possibly make sense, can it? Surely lifechangingness is at least a little more likely in worlds where we get superhuman math. If for no other reason than that achieving superhuman math probably won't happen in the plausible-if-not-likely scenario that AI is in a funding bubble that's about to burst. (I think certainty about this in either direction is misguided.)