This is a conditional market derived from the following markets:

1. https://manifold.markets/dreev/superhuman-mathematical-problem-sol

2. https://manifold.markets/dreev/will-ai-be-lifechanging-for-muggles

Specifically, we're asking for the probability of AI being life-changing for muggles by the end of 2029, conditional on superhuman mathematical problem solving (but no AGI) being achieved by that time.

So if market 1 resolves NO or N/A then this market resolves N/A. If market 1 resolves YES then this market resolves the same as market 2.

(This market is inspired by conflicting intuitions between myself and Svata Pleva. I think it would require a bit of coincidence for superhuman math to happen so quickly and so close to the 2030 deadline that there'd be no time for muggles to be impacted. Svata sees it as somewhat rare and/or slow for math breakthroughs to trickle down to practical applications.)