Resolution
Resolves according to the first season I appear in the masters league at this address (or equivalent, if it changes):
https://manifold.markets/leagues/9/masters/opportunistic-minotaurs
~I'll resolve any sub question as soon as it becomes impossible, e.g. if I fail to promote a league in a given month or am demoted.~ This isn't possible since it's a single-outcome market. Good thing that that won't be necessary ;)
I will not participate in this market.
Background info
I intend to reach Masters in 2024
I am currently likely to promote to Gold from Bronze:
https://manifold.markets/leagues/9/bronze/leveraged-witches
My performance this month looks like it would have been likely enough for a promotion to Diamond in about half the Platinum leagues (but also most likely demote-able, were I in Diamond)
I ranked 7th for Peer Score in 2023 on Metaculus: https://www.metaculus.com/leaderboard/?category=peer&year=2023&duration=1
Season 13 would I believe be the earliest possible time I could reach Masters with consecutive promotions
I have been using Manifold for about a month and enjoying it so far, but I could get bored or distracted and give up
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ197 | |
| 2 | Ṁ32 | |
| 3 | Ṁ21 | |
| 4 | Ṁ15 | |
| 5 | Ṁ1 |
Headwinds: a big portion of my trading profits thus far have been ~copying my Metaculus bets across. With the quarterly cup wrapping up end-march, there was less 'play' in March - fewer questions opening, less movement in existing ones. Should pick up again in April.