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[short fuse] how late will my train be
18
Ṁ225Ṁ1.8k
resolved Mar 25
Resolved
0 - 4
100%45%
0 - 4
37%
5 - 14
8%
15 - 29
5%
30 - 59
2%
60 - 89
1.2%
90 - 119
0.9%
120 - 180
0.8%
Above 180

I am currently taking the Amtrak from Emeryville CA to Burbank CA. At time of writing, the train is already 18 minutes late and hasn't departed yet.

Resolves to the number of minutes late the train is vs scheduled arrival in Burbank Bob Hope.

If the train is early, resolves 0-4

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what a saga

@jcb I wonder if this is a classic "incentives rule everything around me" thing, like they're only judged for on time performance at the terminals

@draaglom From looking at the train schedules it looks like you aren't at the last stop (Union Station is also listed on the amtrak site), so I don't think that's necessarily it. Could be the most popular stop though, or just random luck

@CollinMatthews It's the second to last stop. If they're trying extra hard to be on time at the last stop, it seems unsurprising for them to be on time (or close) at the stop just before, too.

@jcb that was my thinking

And I'm here. Thanks for betting!

Simi valley! Departed ~13 min late.

Hello to you too sir

Not too far now

bought Ṁ10 YES

Are you on 11 Coast Starlight? I'm not too familiar with Amtrak, but it says you're expected to be early into Burbank. Are people just betting higher because that train is known for being late?

@CollinMatthews yes I am!

9 mins delayed out of San Jose

this is the schedule btw

@MingCat confident! what do you know

bought Ṁ2 YES

@draaglom just betting on significant time saves/losses not being all that likely!

opened a Ṁ150 NO at 50% order

@MingCat limit order up for 15 - 29 NO at 50% (for an hour) if you believe!

in my understanding, Amtrak delays are pretty high variance: they can be forced to wait for a long time by freight trains, but they build a ton of slack into the schedule to compensate, so there's a decent chance of arriving to any given station quite late but also a decent chance of making up time.

The conductor claims we are "On time into LA". Take that as you will.

the train has departed approximately 20 mins late

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