The interesting working paper FIREWOOD IN THE AMERICAN ECONOMY: 1700 TO 2010, Nicholas Z. Muller, 2025, claims:
> Beginning in the last decade of the 18th century, firewood output increased from about 18% of GDP to just under 30% of GDP in the 1830s. The value of firewood fell to less than 5% of GDP by the 1880s.

The relevant figure is 0.267 in the 1830-1840 row, + 0.0678 in the constant row, adding up to about 27.4% of the GDP.

This question resolves YES if the paper's results hold up to scientific scrutiny by December 2026, in the sense that most economists would agree that firewood was more than 20% of US GDP in the 1830s. Resolves NO if a convincing rebuttal is made to the paper's main claim.

The market creator reserves the full right to interpret the resolution criteria, to resolve to a percentage due to uncertainty, or to name another person or AI who will resolve the question.