Currently, LeBron James has 10,247 assists and Chris Paul has 11,194 assists, meaning that LeBron is 947 assists behind. https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/ast_career.html
Both are still currently active players, and both have around 200 assists recorded so far this season. They are approximately the same age.
This market will be resolved positively if LeBron is ahead of Chris Paul in career assists, and Chris Paul is retired. It will resolve negatively if Chris Paul is ahead of LeBron, and LeBron is retired. If LeBron passes Paul, and then gets passed back, and then they both retire, it would still resolve negatively.
This is close to impossible. Even if Chris Paul ends his career after this season, LeBron would need to keep his current rate and play another three seasons. And with every season Chris Paul continues playing, the gap gets bigger (he is averaging 3 assist per game more than LeBron still).
@howtodowtle Unlikely, sure, but I wouldn’t say close to impossible. LeBron seems to have more motivation to play longer than Chris Paul (to play with his kids), so I could see him playing 3 extra seasons
@dominic Is there any reason to believe that Chris Paul will retire after this season, though? If he doesn't (but retires next summed), LeBron would need to play another four years from today. Not impossible but I wouldn't say it's more likely that Chris Paul playing another two.