Seems like historically AI models often get released near each other, for whatever reason. Bard was released on March 21, 2023, a week after GPT-4, for example, and Claude 2 was released on March 14, the same day as GPT-4.
Resolves yes if there are less than or equal to 14 days between the public release of Gemini Ultra and the announcement of GPT-4.5 or GPT-5 (not necessarily the release). February 10 and February 24 would resolve yes, February 10 and February 25 would resolve no. Time zone PST. Resolution only based on day of release, not time (Feb 10, 12:01 AM and Feb 24, 11:59 PM resolves yes).
If OpenAI decides to call 4.5 or 5 a different thing, that would still count, but it would have to be clearly the next model (GPT-4 Super Turbo or something would not count).
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Edit: Never mind, sorry. The wording was a little inconsistent but still clear enough.
@ZviMowshowitz curious what your reasoning for high confidence that this should be below 25% is, given that I know you've spent quite a bit of time looking at AI trends. do you not expect OpenAI to release anything in the next couple months?
@dominic a 28 day window? How many times has this happened so far, 5 in as many years? How many times will it happen in the next 2? I presume 2 at most. It's math.
@ZviMowshowitz this only trades double digit if you think they will time it that way on purpose. I don't think that is likely.