Will Hillary Clinton live to see a female POTUS?
Will Hillary Clinton live to see a female POTUS?
7
1kṀ7412048
44%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
1. Resolves YES if a female (or m2f) president of the United States is sworn in while Hillary Clinton is still alive.
2. Resolves NO in the following cases:
• Hillary Clinton passes away before a female POTUS is sworn in.
• The event does not occur by the 2048 U.S. presidential election.
• Two consecutive “expected elections” (standard, every-four-year presidential elections) do not occur before a female POTUS e.g because of WW3 or civil war
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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