Will the Conservative Party of Canada form a Majority Government after the 45th Canadian Federal Election?
Will the Conservative Party of Canada form a Majority Government after the 45th Canadian Federal Election?
99
1kṀ28k2026
6%
chance
1D
1W
1M
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The 45th Canadian federal election is scheduled to take place on or before October 20, 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons and decide the next Prime Minister of Canada.
Will Pierre Poilievre and the CPC be able to defeat Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party to establish a MAJORITY government.
For market to resolve as YES, the CPC must win over half of the seats in the Canadian House of Commons (over 169 seats out of 338 available seats). If the CPC does not win the election OR forms a minority government (169 seats or less out of 338 available seats), market will resolve as NO.
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Current polling odds of CPC majority are 83%. Market seems underpriced. https://338canada.com/federal.htm
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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