Will the Conservative Party of Canada form a Majority Government after the 45th Canadian Federal Election?
51
3.7k
2026
84%
chance

The 45th Canadian federal election is scheduled to take place on or before October 20, 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons and decide the next Prime Minister of Canada.

Will Pierre Poilievre and the CPC be able to defeat Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party to establish a MAJORITY government.

For market to resolve as YES, the CPC must win over half of the seats in the Canadian House of Commons (over 169 seats out of 338 available seats). If the CPC does not win the election OR forms a minority government (169 seats or less out of 338 available seats), market will resolve as NO.

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Current polling odds of CPC majority are 83%. Market seems underpriced. https://338canada.com/federal.htm

Very good question!

@RosePit thank you!

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