From my experience in lower-ranked leagues, there are some extremely skilled traders out there, often times even better than the traders ranked above them in higher leagues. Will the top 3 earning traders in any Silver league be able to out-earn the top 3 traders in any Diamond league?
For example, if the top 3 traders in Based Dealers in Silver League have an accumulated Mana total of 30,000 and if one cohort of top 3 traders in a Diamond league end the season with a combined Mana total of under 30,000, market will resolve as YES. This applies to all leagues in Silver and all leagues in Diamond.
For market to resolve as NO, all top 3 earners in all Diamond leagues must out-earn all top 3 earners in any Silver League.
This market was inspired by a market I made last month asking if this would happen with Gold leagues: https://manifold.markets/dittopoop/will-the-top-3-traders-in-a-gold-le
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ69 | |
| 2 | Ṁ60 | |
| 3 | Ṁ45 | |
| 4 | Ṁ41 | |
| 5 | Ṁ35 |
People are also trading
currently:
silver has 13,489 + 3,911 + 2,233 = 19633
diamond has 7,304 + 5,659 + 5,553 = 18516
going to sleep then travel tomorrow, so won't participate so lower returns til league end. diamond players are making pretty fast profits, most of my own recent "earnings" are unrealized / fake, and generally good betters (like top of league diamond betters are) will make more profits, presumably, during the first and last days of a month, bc of all the markets closing, so I suspect the diamond league could pass silver if the league lasts more than, say, 4 hours? but it also might not. make of this info what you will, I do have a bunch of positions that, if I'm right, will make me some more earnings in the next hours, but it's nothing huge (and the diamond leaguers might be in the same situation)
(edit: misunderstood the market question, was not relevant)
17636 as of writing https://manifold.markets/leagues/7/diamond/predictive-basilisks
18382 as of writing https://manifold.markets/leagues/7/silver/shy-dealers
@TheBayesian you deserve a mention before this closes!
@snoozingnewt wait a minute, you sure that count is right? there are still a lot of subleagues within diamond league (edit: I was misunderstanding the market question)
@TheBayesian Did you read the problem? Every single diamond league has to beat every single silver league
that could have been clearer (edit: I should have read better)
@snoozingnewt To be clear, does it resolve when the leagues resolve or when this market closes?