Who will win the 2024 FIDE Candidates Tournament?

🏟️ Major Sporting Events & Champions•Sports•Chess

179

6.8K

Ṁ240K

Ṁ7K

resolved Apr 22

ALL

100%99.2%

Gukesh D

0.4%

Fabiano Caruana

0.1%

Hikaru Nakamura

0.0%

Alireza Firouzja

0.0%

Vidit Gujrathi

0.0%

Nijat Abasov

0.2%

Ian Nepomniachtchi

0.0%

R Praggnanandhaa

0.0%

Other*

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candidates_Tournament_2024

The 2024 Candidates Tournament will be an eight-player chess tournament, held to determine the challenger for the 2024 World Chess Championship match. It is scheduled to be held from 2 to 25 April 2024 in Toronto, Canada.

As with every Candidates tournament since 2013, it will be a double round-robin tournament. The winner of the tournament will earn the right to play the World Chess Championship 2024 against the current World Chess Champion Ding Liren

This market seeks to predict the event's winner.

Resolution Criteria:

The market will resolve based on the player who is officially declared the winner of the 2024 Candidates Tournament as announced or published by FIDE on one of its official channels.

Tiebreak Rules:

If two or more players are tied for the first place, the market will resolve in favor of the player who wins based on the Candidates Tournament’s official tiebreak criteria

Contingencies*:

Expected Replacement Player: Nijat Abasov is included in the market as an expected replacement for Magnus Carlsen. In the event that Magnus Carlsen rejoins the tournament, all predictions made for Nijat Abasov will remain valid.
Formal Acceptance Pending: If any players do not formally accept their invitation at tournament start, bets involving these players will still be considered valid. Any replacement players will not be added to the market but will be counted under "Other"
If the tournament is postponed: The market will remain open until the new end date of the tournament. All predictions can be revised until the new closing date.
If the tournament is cancelled: The market will be voided

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25 Comments

155 Holders

2.8K Trades

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sold Ṁ294 Gukesh D YES

whats happening here

bought Ṁ100 Fabiano Caruana YES

@jacksonpolack Nepo small blunder, caruana may smell blood

sold Ṁ109 Fabiano Caruana YES

NOOOOO I shoulda sold the Caruana Stonks when I could have D:

I mean on the one hand gukesh position looks like a draw and fabi is a clear win. On the other hand, how hard is hikaru going to push for a win? Might he throw the fame trying?

Engine goes from 0.0 ->+0.3 -> /me immediately buys 1000 YES Fabiano Caruana

all you addicts blitzing out trades for fake money ;)

have a feeling today will surpass the absolute chaos that was Tata Steel in January

Gukesh has the best matchups. I think 20% might be underrated tbh. But at this point I have no idea what to expect.

bought Ṁ61 Ian Nepomniachtchi NO

@SophusCorry OTOH I think Nepo is way overrated...he has the two toughest matchups coming up and has only won against Alireza and Vidit in the tournament so far and was lost multiple times

https://www.oddschecker.com/chess/candidates-tournament/winner - bookmaker odds. bookies think Nepo has a 66% chance (?)

bought Ṁ10 Ian Nepomniachtchi YES

What a tournament

@McLovin RIP

Nepo has upcoming white games agains Gukesh, Pragg and Naka

@diadematus Predict that Nepo will destroy one of (Gukesh, Pragg) and tie with Naka.

@AlQuinn 2/3 might still be a bad result for him? he probably needs 2.5/3 in these games since his last round game is black vs. Fabi

@diadematus Yeah Fabi has been solid; not sure how Nepo would look on the tiebreaks after all that

bought Ṁ312 Hikaru Nakamura YES

Hikaru is half a point out of first and has white vs Abasov coming up. There is a good chance he wins this.

Unless Ian somehow wins...

@jaseMalinowski it's Fabi who has white vs. Abasov coming up. Hikaru is Black vs. Vidit who beat him in round 2 so anything can happen

@diadematus I wasn't saying tomorrow, I think round 10 he does. But for sure anything can still happen this is just the best chance Hikaru has had since round 1.