Who will win the 2024 FIDE Candidates Tournament?
Apr 25
Ian Nepomniachtchi
Gukesh D
R Praggnanandhaa
Hikaru Nakamura
Fabiano Caruana
Vidit Gujrathi
Alireza Firouzja
Nijat Abasov


The 2024 Candidates Tournament will be an eight-player chess tournament, held to determine the challenger for the 2024 World Chess Championship match. It is scheduled to be held from 2 to 25 April 2024 in Toronto, Canada.

As with every Candidates tournament since 2013, it will be a double round-robin tournament. The winner of the tournament will earn the right to play the World Chess Championship 2024 against the current World Chess Champion Ding Liren

This market seeks to predict the event's winner.

Resolution Criteria:

  • The market will resolve based on the player who is officially declared the winner of the 2024 Candidates Tournament as announced or published by FIDE on one of its official channels.

Tiebreak Rules:

  • If two or more players are tied for the first place, the market will resolve in favor of the player who wins based on the Candidates Tournament’s official tiebreak criteria


  • Expected Replacement Player: Nijat Abasov is included in the market as an expected replacement for Magnus Carlsen. In the event that Magnus Carlsen rejoins the tournament, all predictions made for Nijat Abasov will remain valid.

  • Formal Acceptance Pending: If any players do not formally accept their invitation at tournament start, bets involving these players will still be considered valid. Any replacement players will not be added to the market but will be counted under "Other"

  • If the tournament is postponed: The market will remain open until the new end date of the tournament. All predictions can be revised until the new closing date.

  • If the tournament is cancelled: The market will be voided

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Nepo has upcoming white games agains Gukesh, Pragg and Naka

@diadematus Predict that Nepo will destroy one of (Gukesh, Pragg) and tie with Naka.

@AlQuinn 2/3 might still be a bad result for him? he probably needs 2.5/3 in these games since his last round game is black vs. Fabi

@diadematus Yeah Fabi has been solid; not sure how Nepo would look on the tiebreaks after all that

bought Ṁ312 Hikaru Nakamura YES

Hikaru is half a point out of first and has white vs Abasov coming up. There is a good chance he wins this.

Unless Ian somehow wins...

@jaseMalinowski it's Fabi who has white vs. Abasov coming up. Hikaru is Black vs. Vidit who beat him in round 2 so anything can happen

@diadematus I wasn't saying tomorrow, I think round 10 he does. But for sure anything can still happen this is just the best chance Hikaru has had since round 1.

bought Ṁ40 Ian Nepomniachtchi NO

Abasov is going to draw Nepo with black! I think this might be a big missed opportunity for Ian if others do beat Abasov.

uh oh, I made something similar

Gukesh has got to work on those blitz skills

bought Ṁ210 Gukesh D YES

it was just revealed to me in a stunning dream during my nap today that Gukesh will win the tournament. guess that's that

The last 6 winners of the candidates have been leading the tournament after round 4 per chess24

@traders if Nijat Abasov does not lose today i will immediately resolve him as the winner because he will already have won the tournament in my heart

Carlsen also has Caruana and Naka as likely winners, Nepo a rung below, Gukesh and Vidit to do poorly, Alireza and Pragg to hold their own without winning. So almost exactly as Manifold https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v0gYaXRq3SM

https://youtu.be/tOY1BpY9vNQ?t=1056 - PH Nielsen has Caruana as a "clear favorite"

bought Ṁ100 of Alireza Firouzja YES

also suprised at the lack of action on Alireza so I decided to generate some

Dang guys, I mean Ian is good but I feel like Fabi and Hikaru have been killing it lately. Why is Ian so high rated right now?

@CarlCinco the market is fairly illiquid, but i would absolutely short the hell out of Nepo if i had the funds