https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candidates_Tournament_2024
The 2024 Candidates Tournament will be an eight-player chess tournament, held to determine the challenger for the 2024 World Chess Championship match. It is scheduled to be held from 2 to 25 April 2024 in Toronto, Canada.
As with every Candidates tournament since 2013, it will be a double round-robin tournament. The winner of the tournament will earn the right to play the World Chess Championship 2024 against the current World Chess Champion Ding Liren
This market seeks to predict the event's winner.
Resolution Criteria:
The market will resolve based on the player who is officially declared the winner of the 2024 Candidates Tournament as announced or published by FIDE on one of its official channels.
Tiebreak Rules:
If two or more players are tied for the first place, the market will resolve in favor of the player who wins based on the Candidates Tournament’s official tiebreak criteria
Contingencies*:
Expected Replacement Player: Nijat Abasov is included in the market as an expected replacement for Magnus Carlsen. In the event that Magnus Carlsen rejoins the tournament, all predictions made for Nijat Abasov will remain valid.
Formal Acceptance Pending: If any players do not formally accept their invitation at tournament start, bets involving these players will still be considered valid. Any replacement players will not be added to the market but will be counted under "Other"
If the tournament is postponed: The market will remain open until the new end date of the tournament. All predictions can be revised until the new closing date.
If the tournament is cancelled: The market will be voided
1,000
3.00
@SophusCorry OTOH I think Nepo is way overrated...he has the two toughest matchups coming up and has only won against Alireza and Vidit in the tournament so far and was lost multiple times
https://www.oddschecker.com/chess/candidates-tournament/winner - bookmaker odds. bookies think Nepo has a 66% chance (?)
@AlQuinn 2/3 might still be a bad result for him? he probably needs 2.5/3 in these games since his last round game is black vs. Fabi
Unless Ian somehow wins...
@jaseMalinowski it's Fabi who has white vs. Abasov coming up. Hikaru is Black vs. Vidit who beat him in round 2 so anything can happen
@diadematus I wasn't saying tomorrow, I think round 10 he does. But for sure anything can still happen this is just the best chance Hikaru has had since round 1.
Abasov is going to draw Nepo with black! I think this might be a big missed opportunity for Ian if others do beat Abasov.
uh oh, I made something similar
@traders if Nijat Abasov does not lose today i will immediately resolve him as the winner because he will already have won the tournament in my heart