As of this writing (March 2024), prop betting is having a moment on Manifold. The Manifold team has noticed and may incorporate changes to the site to better support this use case.

Personally, I’m bullish on this use case - as much as I might prefer to be most fond of serious, long-term forecasting questions, the most fun I’ve had on Manifold is live betting, especially on silly, unlikely, and sometimes subjective props. It also matches the shift that I and my network have seen in the sports betting industry in the last year or so.

Are prop bets a flash-in-the-pan fad or will they sustain or increase their popularity in the medium term? Will Manifold ride this (or what looks to me to be a) wave?

Resolution will be based on my subjective judgment. “Prominent” will likely be defined as a tier 1 use case (formally supported by Manifold functionality, ie the ability to create questions specifically made for props) or a tier 2 use case (not formally supported, but heavily used by the user base, similar to as it is now).

See also: