Will David test positive for COVID in February 2022?
8
100Ṁ370
resolved Mar 1
Resolved
NO
This market resolves to “YES” if I test positive for COVID-19 in the month of February 2022. Potentially useful info: - 32-year-old male living in 2br apt in NW Washington, DC with partner, no kids or pets. - J&J single dose + Moderna booster. - Have not contracted COVID to my knowledge or previously tested positive for COVID. Partner had mild COVID in August 2021. - Fully work from home. - No comorbidities/existing health conditions. Above average health and active lifecycle. - Planned social activities: long weekend trip with extended family of 7 via train to NYC (Airbnb, shopping, museums), hosting 4-person Super Bowl Party, hosting 6-person and 4-person family dinners, potential outdoor dining with one or two friends at a time, grocery and other occasional store runs. All friends and family are double-vaxxed and usually boosted. - I mask, usually with KN95, at any indoor public location except when eating out (2-5x per month). - Test would likely only be taken because of COVID-like symptoms or known exposure. Likely would be conducted through at-home rapid test (I have a few on hand already). - Get in touch on Manifold Discord for any additional details you’d like me to add.
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No symptoms yet and not much time left...
I think 10% looks about right, so I'm hedging by putting in $10 on NO and $1 on YES.
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