1,000
3.00Really unfortunate that you have the earliest market for this question and have less traders than each of the 3 duplicate markets (2 of which will get actual cash money for it) made in just the past few weeks. And don't forget to have this market close before the end of the game, lest you get shit on because it is now an outdated market type. You put up the mana early, have the market on here first, and then you get screwed in the end while Struteo Coolfold or whoever the fuck rakes in hundreds of dollars. It's things like this that infuriate me sometimes on this otherwise awesome site. Ok, end rant.
https://manifold.markets/Predictor/which-team-will-win-super-bowl-lvii-1394b6f1a8de
@Predictor i agree with the sentiment, and it sucks when it happens to me too. the majority of the time people duplicate markets not realizing others exist, so i don't fully blame them for doing it. i wish the manifold algorithm prioritized the oldest markets so they get the most traders too .
@Predictor i didnt even realize this market by david existed, but i was aware of 2 other duplicates haha. so that really shows the problem i guess
@Predictor @strutheo no worries, no harm no foul here - this was indeed created immediately after last year’s tournament but under the parimutuel format that existed at the time. That format has since been deprecated, so it’s understandable that it’s (what I assume to be) penalized by the algo. My fault for not realizing in time before @SemioticRivalry created a new market under the new format, as it is much better. I've learned my lesson and encourage everyone to use my market for next year's 2025 tournament! (Unless I get screwed by a market format change again!)
The solution here in my mind is UI improvements by the Manifold team to better warn about duplicate markets during creation. Like @strutheo said, I suspect most duplicates are created unintentionally. When it happens, I do prefer to support the market created first assuming that the quality of the description is not substantially worse than a duplicate market. That's why, for example, I promote @SemioticRivalry's MC market on the March Madness 2024 dashboard since that market was created Feb 26th, rather than @strutheo's MC market created on Mar 8th.
All that said though, I just want Manifold to succeed, so if another creator does that better than me in driving engagement (i.e. via better quality markets, more promotion/micro-blogging, etc) I support it. I think of Manifold like YouTube - the same video content is essentially duplicated over and over by various content creators but the creators who can get the most distribution should understandably be prioritized by YouTube's algo.
My 2c!
Last year, UConn won the tournament with an incredible showing.
When I looked at the championships over the past 20 years by conference, I found 6 champions from the Big East conference, 3 champions from the Big 12 conference, 8 champions from the ACC, and 3 champions from the SEC conference. The Big East and Big 12 have won the championship the past three years, but before that, the ACC won every other year. The last time an SEC team won was in 2012, and no school has won in the last 10 years. Looking at this year's team rankings, Kansas ranks first, followed by Duke in second and Purdue in third. Last year's champion Connecticut was sixth. In the past 20 years, only Florida has won two years in a row, in 2006 and 2007. Therefore, the chances of Connecticut winning the championship in 2024 are not high. I bet that Duke will win this year, because I expect there will be a winning school from the ACC conference, and Duke is a very good team in terms of both coach and players, ranking second in this year's rankings.
Reference:
Stan Becton, NCAA.com, Stan Becton, NCAA.com, & NCAA.com. (2023, October 16). College basketball rankings: Kansas, Duke and Purdue lead preseason AP Top 25 poll. NCAA.com. https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2023-10-16/college-basketball-rankings-kansas-duke-and-purdue-lead-preseason-ap-top-25-poll
NCAA.com. (2023, July 28). DI Men’s Basketball Championship history. https://www.ncaa.com/history/basketball-men/d1
