Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup?
68
3.8kṀ130kresolved Dec 18
100%87%
Argentina
0.2%Other
0.2%
Brazil
9%
France
0.2%
Germany
0.2%
England
0.2%
Spain
0.2%
Belgium
0.2%
Italy
0.2%
Netherlands
0.2%
Portugal
0.2%
Croatia
0.2%
USA
0.2%
Denmark
0.2%
Mexico
0.2%
Poland
0.2%
Japan
0.2%
Switzerland
0.2%
Uruguay
0.2%
Ecuador
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_FIFA_World_Cup
Close date updated to 2022-12-18 2:00 pm
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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I'm fully leveraged, so I'll just note: vegasinsider.com puts Argentina as -120 favorites with France at +125. so, obviously, the current odds of 54% and 35% respectively are both within that bid-ask spread, and by a comfortable margin (at least in part because Morocco is likely oversold at 8% relative to their +1100 odds (actually right on the money, but "right on what vegas is paying on a longshot" is not accurate odds)). But 35% implies odds of +185 whereas 54% implies odds of -108, so France looks a little undersold here.
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