closes Sep 2, 2024
Who will win the 2024 Republican nomination for US President?

Resolves when a candidate becomes presumptive nominee after securing a majority of pledged delegates; or if this does not happen resolves when a candidate is officially selected as nominee.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries

jack avatarRon DeSantis
46%
jack avatarDonald Trump
41%
jack avatarNikki Haley
4%
jack avatarSomeone else
3%
jack avatarGlenn Youngkin
2%
jack avatarMike Pence
1.5%
jack avatarTim Scott
0.6%
jack avatarRick Scott
0.5%
jack avatarTed Cruz
0.5%
jack avatarChris Sununu
0.5%
jack avatarMike Pompeo
0.5%
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RahulShah avatar
Rahul Shahbought Ṁ3 of Ron DeSantis
jack avatar
Jack

This market was created last November and at the time the market mechanism was multi-CFMM, which has since been removed because of issues with very poor liquidity. I created several yes/no markets on the top contenders instead:

casens avatar
casens

how do you sell the shares on this market? i'm tired of seeing it in my portfolio when any rando can spend a tiny amount of mana to drive the probabilities to stupid levels

jack avatar
Jack

@casens Hi! You can buy NO shares to cancel out your YES shares, but because share counts are fractional, unfortunately I don't think it's possible to completely get rid of all your shares on this market type. Manifold had this market type for a short time before removing it because of issues with very small trades moving the probability way too much, like you mention.

I will probably close the market to avoid the big price swings, and encourage traders to use the yes/no markets I just created, linked above. If anyone objects, let me know. The market will still resolve as normal once the nominee is determined.

JoshuaB avatar
Joshua

@jack This is a very weak objection, but I think that correcting this market has been a source of very minor fun/whimsy in my life, and so I would like it to remain open. Like, who even knew a negative cost basis was possible?!?

MP avatar
MP

Here's a market I just created

AaronKreider avatar
Aaron Kreider

Needs an Other option. And/or a method to resolve if Other wins.

AaronKreider avatar
Aaron Kreider

@AaronKreider Oh I see it is there, nice!

ZiquaftyNny avatar
Ziquafty Nnybought Ṁ10 of Donald Trump

DeSantis won't even run.

jack avatar
Jackbought Ṁ30 of Donald Trump