Who will win the 2024 Republican nomination for US President?
resolved May 21
Donald Trump
Ron DeSantis
Mike Pence
Glenn Youngkin
Tim Scott
Ted Cruz
Nikki Haley
Mike Pompeo
Chris Sununu
Rick Scott
Someone else

Resolves when a candidate becomes presumptive nominee after securing a majority of pledged delegates; or if this does not happen resolves when a candidate is officially selected as nominee.


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Note: Resolving this N/A because this market mechanism is deprecated. This is one of ten open markets which we are closing to remove technical debt.

Sorry for the inconvenience. Soon there will be a better multiple choice mechanism!

bought Ṁ3 of Ron DeSantis

This market was created last November and at the time the market mechanism was multi-CFMM, which has since been removed because of issues with very poor liquidity. I created several yes/no markets on the top contenders instead:

how do you sell the shares on this market? i'm tired of seeing it in my portfolio when any rando can spend a tiny amount of mana to drive the probabilities to stupid levels

@casens Hi! You can buy NO shares to cancel out your YES shares, but because share counts are fractional, unfortunately I don't think it's possible to completely get rid of all your shares on this market type. Manifold had this market type for a short time before removing it because of issues with very small trades moving the probability way too much, like you mention.

I will probably close the market to avoid the big price swings, and encourage traders to use the yes/no markets I just created, linked above. If anyone objects, let me know. The market will still resolve as normal once the nominee is determined.

@jack This is a very weak objection, but I think that correcting this market has been a source of very minor fun/whimsy in my life, and so I would like it to remain open. Like, who even knew a negative cost basis was possible?!?

Here's a market I just created

Needs an Other option. And/or a method to resolve if Other wins.

@AaronKreider Oh I see it is there, nice!

bought Ṁ10 of Donald Trump

DeSantis won't even run.

bought Ṁ30 of Donald Trump