closes Sep 2, 2024
Who will win the 2024 Republican nomination for US President?

Resolves when a candidate becomes presumptive nominee after securing a majority of pledged delegates; or if this does not happen resolves when a candidate is officially selected as nominee.

jack avatarRon DeSantis
jack avatarDonald Trump
jack avatarNikki Haley
jack avatarSomeone else
jack avatarGlenn Youngkin
jack avatarMike Pence
jack avatarTim Scott
jack avatarRick Scott
jack avatarTed Cruz
jack avatarChris Sununu
jack avatarMike Pompeo
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RahulShah avatar
Rahul Shahbought Ṁ3 of Ron DeSantis
jack avatar

This market was created last November and at the time the market mechanism was multi-CFMM, which has since been removed because of issues with very poor liquidity. I created several yes/no markets on the top contenders instead:

casens avatar

how do you sell the shares on this market? i'm tired of seeing it in my portfolio when any rando can spend a tiny amount of mana to drive the probabilities to stupid levels

jack avatar

@casens Hi! You can buy NO shares to cancel out your YES shares, but because share counts are fractional, unfortunately I don't think it's possible to completely get rid of all your shares on this market type. Manifold had this market type for a short time before removing it because of issues with very small trades moving the probability way too much, like you mention.

I will probably close the market to avoid the big price swings, and encourage traders to use the yes/no markets I just created, linked above. If anyone objects, let me know. The market will still resolve as normal once the nominee is determined.

JoshuaB avatar

@jack This is a very weak objection, but I think that correcting this market has been a source of very minor fun/whimsy in my life, and so I would like it to remain open. Like, who even knew a negative cost basis was possible?!?

MP avatar

Here's a market I just created

AaronKreider avatar
Aaron Kreider

Needs an Other option. And/or a method to resolve if Other wins.

AaronKreider avatar
Aaron Kreider

@AaronKreider Oh I see it is there, nice!

ZiquaftyNny avatar
Ziquafty Nnybought Ṁ10 of Donald Trump

DeSantis won't even run.

jack avatar
Jackbought Ṁ30 of Donald Trump