Who will win the 2024 Republican nomination for US President?
46
158
resolved May 21
ResolvedN/A
0.0%
Donald Trump
0.0%
Ron DeSantis
0.0%
Mike Pence
0.0%
Glenn Youngkin
0.0%
Tim Scott
0.0%
Ted Cruz
0.0%
Nikki Haley
0.0%
Mike Pompeo
0.0%
Chris Sununu
0.0%
Rick Scott
0.0%
Someone else

Resolves when a candidate becomes presumptive nominee after securing a majority of pledged delegates; or if this does not happen resolves when a candidate is officially selected as nominee.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries

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Note: Resolving this N/A because this market mechanism is deprecated. This is one of ten open markets which we are closing to remove technical debt.

Sorry for the inconvenience. Soon there will be a better multiple choice mechanism!

bought Ṁ3 of Ron DeSantis

This market was created last November and at the time the market mechanism was multi-CFMM, which has since been removed because of issues with very poor liquidity. I created several yes/no markets on the top contenders instead:

how do you sell the shares on this market? i'm tired of seeing it in my portfolio when any rando can spend a tiny amount of mana to drive the probabilities to stupid levels

@casens Hi! You can buy NO shares to cancel out your YES shares, but because share counts are fractional, unfortunately I don't think it's possible to completely get rid of all your shares on this market type. Manifold had this market type for a short time before removing it because of issues with very small trades moving the probability way too much, like you mention.

I will probably close the market to avoid the big price swings, and encourage traders to use the yes/no markets I just created, linked above. If anyone objects, let me know. The market will still resolve as normal once the nominee is determined.

@jack This is a very weak objection, but I think that correcting this market has been a source of very minor fun/whimsy in my life, and so I would like it to remain open. Like, who even knew a negative cost basis was possible?!?

Here's a market I just created

Needs an Other option. And/or a method to resolve if Other wins.

@AaronKreider Oh I see it is there, nice!

bought Ṁ10 of Donald Trump

DeSantis won't even run.

bought Ṁ30 of Donald Trump