When will my son bring home his 2nd sickness from daycare?
Basic
9
2.0k
resolved Jun 6
100%46%
Week 4: Week of June 3rd
6%
Week 2: Week of May 20th
15%
Week 3: Week of May 27th
11%
Week 5: Week of June 10th
9%
Week 6: Week of June 17th
7%
Week 7: Week of June 24th
7%
Week 8+: Week of July 1st or later

The sequel to the popular inaugural market that resolved to my son getting pink eye after just one week of daycare:

My ~6-month started daycare mid-May. We’re bracing to be perpetually sick. He already missed his first day of daycare after only one week due to contracting pink eye.

When will he bring home his second sickness?

Resolves to the first week in which…

  1. He has to stay home from daycare due to an illness OR

  2. my wife feels unwell such that she takes cold medicine OR

  3. I feel unwell such that I take cold medicine,

    regardless of whether we can confirm or not whether we got sick from him specifically.

All weeks refer to 2024. May provide updates voluntarily, will provide updates upon request. I won’t trade except to set initial probabilities.

We live in Washington, DC, USA.

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Kid has had a runny nose for a while but not preventing him from going to daycare. However, I’ve come down to with something similar, bad enough to take some Claritin. Resolves to Week 4. ✅ 🤧

@dglid Hope it passes through quickly!

We’ve made it through Week 3 unscathed!

bought Ṁ250 Week 4: Week of June... YES

@dglid I’m a little bit shocked and extremely glad for your good fortune.

We’re on vacation the rest of this week starting at noon today so unless he has to come home earlier than that, Week 2 will resolve NO.

bought Ṁ250 Week 2: Week of May ... YES

Good luck to ya from someone who’s been through it

@voodoo Isn’t summer supposed to be better for sickness frequency?!?

@dglid I’m jaded. Seasonality never meant that much for an untrained immune system and it’s been further disrupted since Covid. I had sick kids through May this year and mine are much older.

I’m betting my pessimism basically and if I lose maybe that’ll be a good jolt to make me more optimistic.

@dglid Stomach bugs were also brutal for us at the early ages and have no seasonality to them.