When will my son bring home his 2nd sickness from daycare?
9
1.8kṀ2035
resolved Jun 6
100%46%
Week 4: Week of June 3rd
6%
Week 2: Week of May 20th
15%
Week 3: Week of May 27th
11%
Week 5: Week of June 10th
9%
Week 6: Week of June 17th
7%
Week 7: Week of June 24th
7%
Week 8+: Week of July 1st or later

The sequel to the popular inaugural market that resolved to my son getting pink eye after just one week of daycare:

My ~6-month started daycare mid-May. We’re bracing to be perpetually sick. He already missed his first day of daycare after only one week due to contracting pink eye.

When will he bring home his second sickness?

Resolves to the first week in which…

  1. He has to stay home from daycare due to an illness OR

  2. my wife feels unwell such that she takes cold medicine OR

  3. I feel unwell such that I take cold medicine,

    regardless of whether we can confirm or not whether we got sick from him specifically.

All weeks refer to 2024. May provide updates voluntarily, will provide updates upon request. I won’t trade except to set initial probabilities.

We live in Washington, DC, USA.

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