The sequel to the popular inaugural market that resolved to my son getting pink eye after just one week of daycare:
My ~6-month started daycare mid-May. We’re bracing to be perpetually sick. He already missed his first day of daycare after only one week due to contracting pink eye.
When will he bring home his second sickness?
Resolves to the first week in which…
He has to stay home from daycare due to an illness OR
my wife feels unwell such that she takes cold medicine OR
I feel unwell such that I take cold medicine,
regardless of whether we can confirm or not whether we got sick from him specifically.
All weeks refer to 2024. May provide updates voluntarily, will provide updates upon request. I won’t trade except to set initial probabilities.
We live in Washington, DC, USA.
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@dglid I’m jaded. Seasonality never meant that much for an untrained immune system and it’s been further disrupted since Covid. I had sick kids through May this year and mine are much older.
I’m betting my pessimism basically and if I lose maybe that’ll be a good jolt to make me more optimistic.