Will I (@dgga) end up with a positive all-time profit by EOY 2024?
Basic
8
Ṁ252
Dec 31
20%
chance

https://manifold.markets/dgga

Due to some... unfortunate mishaps that had to do with overhedging supposedly guaranteed markets for loanmaxxing purposes, my profits took a nose dive last year:

Will I be able to overcome my dark twisted past and reach positive portfolio profit by EOY 2024?

I may bet on this market, but will always strive to gain mana with every significant investment I make on this platform.

This market resolves YES instantly if I reach >0 overall profit for a minimum of 24 hours according to my public profile (the mana devaluation-adjusted leaderboard profits do not affect this market). Otherwise resolves NO on 01.01.2025.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
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bought Ṁ5 NO

You can fix it by betting YES on this, guaranteed 9000% returns!

https://manifold.markets/PlasmaBallin/will-violent-jay-and-shaggy-2-dope?r=UGxhc21hQmFsbGlu

reposted

2024 edition of my villain origin story up. Bet on my future ascension or demise!

bought Ṁ10 YES

Biden market will probably resolves yes anyway and if it doesn't... oh well, I believe in you buddy. And me too

I did the worst-case-calculation and I'm close to another 60k profit down if Biden drops out and Trump wins. I do believe, though! (plus if I succumb to doubts I can easily exit the Biden market with easy +10-20k profit once people realize he isn't dropping out and the market settles to a more reasonable number. The current 21% is my breakeven point)

Dude I so wish that I didn't go all in on the Biden market at 55% and waited till it dropped to 20s-30s... I thought for sure that betting it down below like, 45 at lowest would be ridiculous. I could be so up right now...

When Biden nomination market was at 25%, I spent all my mana, canceled all the limit orders, and sold a bunch of shit to buy more Biden YES lol

Damn. I got a pretty sweet deal on most of mine:

Biden presidency at 15% is a steal yeah. What do you think the odds are that he wins conditional on getting nominated? At the moment I'd give him like ~85% chance of being nominated and ~40% of winning if nominated, so 15% in the presidency market would correspond to around a 37% in the nomination market.

Unfortunately I have no mana left

Biden nominee market dropped back down to 40%. Now I'm scrambling on what to sell so I can just buy more of that

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