Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to the year in which a third Top Gun movie, featuring Tom Cruise as Pete "Maverick" Mitchell, has its earliest theatrical release anywhere in the world. The earliest public screening in a cinema will be considered the release date. If no such film is released by the end of 2033, the market will resolve to "Other", as well as this movie is released earlier than 2028.

Resolution will be determined by official announcement from Paramount Pictures or widely recognized and reputable entertainment news sources such as Variety, The Hollywood Reporter, or Box Office Mojo.

Background

A third Top Gun movie was officially confirmed to be in development in January 2024, following the commercial and critical success of Top Gun: Maverick (2022). Tom Cruise is expected to reprise his role as Maverick, with Miles Teller and Glen Powell also anticipated to return. Joseph Kosinski, who directed Top Gun: Maverick, is attached as a producer, and Ehren Kruger, a co-writer for the previous film, is working on the script. Producer Jerry Bruckheimer has indicated that while a story idea exists, an official release date depends on Tom Cruise's demanding schedule.

Considerations

As of October 2025, there is no official release date for Top Gun 3. The production timeline is largely influenced by Tom Cruise's commitments to other projects, including the Mission: Impossible franchise. While some speculative reports have mentioned a potential mid-2026 release, official statements suggest that the creative team is taking its time to develop the script to ensure the quality of the film. Director Joseph Kosinski has stated that the film will represent "one last ride" for Maverick, focusing on an "existential crisis" for the character.