Which movie will change its USA release date from December 18, 2026?

Avengers: Doomsday (Marvel Studios, directed by the Russo Brothers, starring Robert Downey Jr. as Doctor Doom) and Dune: Messiah (Warner Bros., directed by Denis Villeneuve, starring Timothée Chalamet) are both set to release on December 18, 2026, creating a potential “Dunesday” clash. Which studio will “blink” and move their release date to avoid competition? Historically, studios avoid such clashes to maximize box office potential, but the “Barbenheimer” phenomenon showed that two blockbusters can coexist. Factors like Villeneuve’s commitment to a James Bond film or Disney’s dominance with Marvel may influence the outcome.

Resolution criteria

• This resolves to the single option that correctly describes what happens to the U.S. wide theatrical release dates relative to Friday, December 18, 2026:

  • “Avengers: Doomsday” — only the fifth Avengers film (the Marvel/Disney title currently dated Dec 18, 2026) officially moves off that date before its U.S. release, while the Villeneuve/Legendary/Warner Bros. Dune 3 project does not (and releases on Dec 18, 2026).

  • “Dune: Messiah” — only the Villeneuve/Legendary/Warner Bros. Dune 3 project (final title may differ) officially moves off that date before its U.S. release, while the Avengers film does not.

  • “Both” — both projects make an official date change away from Dec 18, 2026 at any point before release (even if one or both later return to Dec 18, 2026).

  • “Neither” — both films release wide in the U.S. on Dec 18, 2026 without any prior official date change.

• “Official” means a dated change reported by the studio/distributor or by major trades (Variety, The Hollywood Reporter, Deadline, TheWrap), or reflected on an industry release calendar (Box Office Mojo/The Numbers) that cites studio updates. Verification links for this market:

  • TheWrap (Marvel pushes Avengers to Dec 18, 2026): https://www.thewrap.com/marvel-pushes-avengers-doomsday-secret-wars-to-winter-2026-27/

  • TheWrap (WB dates an untitled Denis Villeneuve/Legendary event film for Dec 18, 2026): https://www.thewrap.com/warner-bros-denis-villeneuve-movie-monsterverse-sequel/

  • Box Office Mojo U.S. calendar for 2026-12-18: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/calendar/2026-12-18/

• Notes/edge cases:

  • Title changes don’t affect resolution; we track the projects (the fifth Avengers film; Villeneuve’s third Dune film).

  • Moving to any other date, “TBD,” or non-theatrical release counts as a change.

  • Thursday preview shows do not constitute a date change if the studio’s listed U.S. release date remains Dec 18, 2026.

  • Resolution occurs once both films have either released in the U.S. or both have officially moved off Dec 18, 2026.

Background

• As of Sep 3, 2025, Disney has dated the next Avengers film for Dec 18, 2026 after a slate shift, and Warner Bros. has dated an untitled Denis Villeneuve/Legendary “event film” for the same day, widely expected to be the third Dune entry; final titling may be “Dune: Part Three” rather than “Dune: Messiah.” Sources: TheWrap (Marvel delay to Dec 18, 2026), TheWrap (WB/Villeneuve Dec 18, 2026).

• Same‑day tentpole clashes are uncommon but not unprecedented; “Barbenheimer” showed two blockbusters can thrive on the same weekend. Reference: CNBC summary of Barbie/Oppenheimer opening and combined impact: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/27/2023-most-important-films.html

Considerations

• Studios often reposition holiday tentpoles within December; minor shifts (e.g., to Dec 25) still count as “blink.”

• If WB’s dated Villeneuve film turns out not to be Dune 3, the market still tracks that Villeneuve/Legendary/WB event film currently occupying Dec 18, 2026.

• If either movie is removed from theatrical (delay to 2027/TBD or pivot to streaming) that option is considered to have changed its date and will count toward “Avengers: Doomsday,” “Dune: Messiah,” or “Both,” per the rules above.