Avatar: Fire and Ash is scheduled to release on December 19, 2025, and will compete against Avatar: The Way of Water's domestic box office performance of $684.1 million. The third Avatar film will need to surpass this benchmark to outperform its predecessor in the US market.
Avatar: The Way of Water was the third highest-grossing film of all time globally with $2.32 billion, but its domestic performance represented about 29% of its total gross. Fire and Ash faces the challenge of shorter anticipation time (3 years vs 13 years between first two films) and potentially diminished 3D surcharge benefits.
Resolution: This market resolves YES if Avatar: Fire and Ash's domestic (US and Canada) box office gross exceeds $684.1 million according to Box Office Mojo by March 29, 2026. If the film does not exceed this amount by the close date, the market resolves NO.
1,000